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January 07, 2007

Comments

Pat Matthews

I agree with you... but I'm curious... what is your take on Google moving into every other market in the world? They are now a direct threat to just about every Internet business out there (mine included in a big way), whether they're a competitor today or trying to be one tomorrow. Sooner or later you won't be able to fill in your blank above.

Thoughts?

Cameron Johnson

Pat, you’re exactly right. What's stopping them from entering any market? Potentially Checkout and Base could be a threat to eBay and PayPal. They're most certainly nowhere near a threat now, but it's possible. They're in a lot of areas, quite possibly too many - but I think that's their strategy right now. They're throwing a lot up there and seeing what sticks. Checkout www.google.com/patents - they're launching new stuff almost daily. They're growing by leaps and bounds but their problem is going to be continuing to grow at the same pace. That's a very, very big challenge for them and it could most definitely threaten the stock. Everything in the press is positive for Google. Almost everything for Microsoft and Yahoo is negative. It's also a cycle, and it's a matter of Google riding their wave. It only takes a few mistakes for Google to trip and fall. Imagine if they had a major security breach - this could be devastating to their business. Additionally, Microsoft could just write the check and buy eBay, PayPal, Skype, and Yahoo. I'm not saying it's worth it for them to do that - but they'd really be the powerhouse and could threaten Google.

And don't forget Google has stepped on some toes. They have their share of copyright lawsuits > not just with YouTube, but also with their Book search among other things. Their problem is going to be continued growth - it's going to be very difficult to continue growing their email and search at the same pace.

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